Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio and her father, President Rodrigo Duterte, emerged as the top bets for president and vice president for the Visayas and Mindanao (VisMin) voters in 2022, according to a pre-election survey.
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The independent and non-commissioned survey dubbed “Pahayag VisMin 2019” showed that Duterte-Carpio topped the list of 21 potential candidates for president, with 35 percent of the respondents selecting her. She was followed by Sen. Mary Grace Poe with 11 percent; Manila City Mayor Francisco “Isko” Domagoso, 7.8 percent; Sen. Emmanuel “Manny” Pacquiao, 5.5 percent; Speaker Alan Peter Cayetano, 4.6 percent; and Sen. Christopher Lawrence “Bong” Go, 4.5 percent.
The survey conducted from Nov. 15 to 19, 2019 involved 2,000 registered voters from the Visayas and Mindanao, who were randomly chosen. It was released by political consultancy firm PUBLiCUS Asia Inc. (PAI), while data was processed by its data science arm, VOX Opinion Research.
The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.19 percent across the entire survey population and +/- 3.1 percent within the respective VisMin clusters.
For the vice presidential race, the older Duterte emerged as the top bet among 21 potential candidates, garnering 11.6 percent. He was trailed by the Davao mayor, who got 11.5 percent.
Following them were Domagoso with 9.85 percent; Poe, 9.05 percent; Cayetano, 8.85 percent; and Pacquiao, 7.25.
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PAI Executive Director and firm spokesman Aureli Sinsuat said the results of the poll showed that the Duterte brand could be stronger in Mindanao and the Visayas bailiwicks than what was originally expected.
Sinsuat pointed out that Duterte-Carpio garnered a whopping 54.1 percent of the Mindanao votes, while the race was too close to call in the Visayas.
Duterte-Carpio’s win was only 16.1 percent in the Visayas, followed by Llamanzares with 13.5 percent and Domagoso with 11.5 percent. With a cluster margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent, this means that the Top 3 choices for President in the Visayas are statistically tied, Sinsuat said.
“Mindanao only has a 2-percent advantage over [the] Visayas in terms of overall voting population, with 23 percent of total voters nationally registered in Mindanao versus 21 percent registered in [the] Visayas. Despite this, the overwhelming preference for Mayor Duterte-Carpio among Mindanaoan respondents essentially nullified the tight results in Visayas,” Sinsuat said.
“Mindanaoan voters catapulted President Duterte to the presidency in 2016. This goes to show that a united Mindanao voting bloc is a force to be reckoned with in the 2022 elections,” he added.
Sinsuat believes that Duterte and his daughter would not run against each other.
“One would undoubtedly give way to the other, and it is safe to presume that a large number of the supporters of one would end up flocking to the other. Thus, whichever Duterte would run for vice president would win by a comfortable margin in [the] Visayas and Mindanao,” he explained.
He doubted that Duterte would again run for president.
“The President has been vocal about his intention to retire from national politics and get some rest after his term ends in 2022. I doubt he would actively pursue six more years of stress as the second-highest official in the land,” Sinsuat said.
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“Nevertheless, we cannot completely discount the possibility of the President’s loyal and persistent supporters attempting to persuade him to stick around after 2022. The numbers from the Pahayag VisMin survey make it plausible that we might see the same sort of grassroots ‘Draft Duterte’ movement we saw in 2016, a second time around,” he added.
Sinsuat also noted that while it was expected for the Dutertes and their allies to come out strong in the Visayas and Mindanao, Llamanzares and Domagoso, who were not close Duterte allies, have shown an impressive performance in the areas.
President Rodrigo Roa Duterte and Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio . MALACANANG PHOTO
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This article first appeared on Manila Times. Written by Divina Nova Joy Dela Cruz.
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