China’s deadly coronavirus may have the same death rate as Spanish flu, an expert has warned.
Deaths from the new virus rose to 17 on Wednesday with hundreds of cases now confirmed, increasing fears of widespread contagion.
The previously unknown flu-like coronavirus strain is believed to have emerged from an animal market in central Wuhan city, with cases now detected as far away as the US.
The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 is widely regarded as “the deadliest in history”, and is believed to have infected around 500 million people worldwide, killing between 20 and 50 million.
Chinese officials have confirmed 440 cases of the new coronavirus strain - 2019-nCoV - so far, with 17 deaths.
Patients with pneumonia caused by the new strain of coronavirus are being treated in Jinyintan hospital, in Wuhan. (Reuters)
Based on existing data, the disease is said to have a 2% death rate. This means that for every 50 people who catch the infection, one will statistically die.
To put this into context, around one in every 1,000 who develop flu die, giving it a death rate of 0.1%.
“This [2019-nCoV’s death rate] could be 2%, similar to Spanish flu,” said Professor Neil Ferguson from Imperial College London.
Professor Peter Horby from the University of Oxford pointed out that fatality estimations are based on “clinical data around hospital cases”.
Of those in hospital, “15%-to-20% are severe cases”, defined as needing ventilation.
Coronaviruses as a class are common, causing everything from the common cold to epidemics like severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars).
2019-nCoV is thought to have originated in animals before “jumping” over to humans.
“Novel viruses spread much faster because we have no immunity,” Prof Ferguson said.
Concern in China as coronavirus death toll rises. [Photo: Getty]
Fatalities are occurring as a result of pneumonia, which comes about when a respiratory infection causes the alveoli (air sacs) in the lungs to become inflamed and filled with fluid or pus, according to the American Lung Association.
The lungs then struggle to draw in air, resulting in reduced oxygen in the bloodstream.
“Without treatment the end is inevitable,” said the charity Médecins Sans Frontières.
The new coronavirus strain has caused 17 confirmed deaths so far. [Photo: Getty]
“Deaths occurs because of asphyxiation.”
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has warned there is no specific treatment for coronaviruses
If the infection triggers pneumonia, doctors work to combat the complication.
When a virus is to blame – like 2019-nCoV – pneumonia may be treated via “antiviral medication”, according to the American Lung Association.
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Yet, Prof Horby argued there is “no effective anti-viral”.
“Most pneumonia is bacterial,” he said.
These infections tend to respond to antibiotics.
“With viral pneumonia, care is ‘supportive’,” Prof Horby said.
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2019-nCoV is not the first coronavirus that has got people panicked.
Sars made headlines in the early 2000s after 774 people died across dozens of countries, mainly in Asia.
Genetic analyses reveal 2019-nCoV is more closely related to Sars than any other coronavirus.
“Sars was nearly universally severe,” Prof Ferguson said.
A health official scans the body temperature of a passenger as she arrives at the Soekarno-Hatta International Airport in Tangerang, Indonesia. (AP Photo/Tatan Syuflana)
“Most cases in China are described as ‘mild’.
“We’re not sure what that means.”
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This article first appeared on Yahoo! News.
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