Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will resign over health reasons and end his tenure as the country’s longest serving premier, he confirmed on Friday.
He said he had suffered a relapse of his chronic illness and since the middle of July, his health had deteriorated and he had lost much of his energy and strength.
“I have been struggling with my illness and I have to get treatment. Poor health should not lead to wrong political decisions. I should continuously produce results,” Abe said in a press conference that was translated by local broadcaster NHK.
He suggested that he would continue to support his replacement but did not want to comment on how his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) would elect its next leader, or who this new leader might be.
“I thank the Japanese people for all your support,” Abe said.
Speculation about Abe’s health and tenure had risen after he made two visits to a hospital recently, first on August 17 and then again a week later. The 65-year-old has battled ulcerative colitis for years, and the condition had forced him to end his first term as prime minister in 2007 after just a year in the job.
He returned to power in 2012, saying that he could keep his condition in check with medicine that had become available. On Monday, he became Japan’s longest-serving premier, surpassing a record set by his great-uncle Eisaku Sato half a century ago.
Even before the recent hospital visits, there had been reports claiming Abe was vomiting blood, as well as questions over his limited public appearances, including to address criticism of his handling of the coronavirus.
One of his trusted lieutenants, Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga had on Friday morning maintained that Abe was in good health. A day before, he said the Prime Minister was expected to remain in his role and continue serving as party leader until his term ended next September.
But Go Ito, a professor of political science at Tokyo’s Meiji University, said Abe’s resignation – if it happened – would not be a surprise to LDP leaders, despite their protestations that he was healthy.
“We saw the same thing in the days before he resigned the first time in 2006 so this will not be unexpected within the party,” he said.
Masking the issue would also have enabled senior members of the party to make their preparations for what comes next, he said.
While there is uncertainty over who could take over, Suga, who has been in his role as Abe’s right-hand man since 2012 could be a caretaker premier.
Finance Minister Taro Aso, who serves as deputy prime minister, could also step in but analysts say it is unlikely that he wants the position full time, or will be trusted with it for a second time by the rest of the party. Aso was prime minister when the LDP lost control of the government to the opposition Democratic Party of Japan in 2009.
Ito said he believed an election for the LDP leader, and by extension, the post of prime minister, would be held in the next few months. The party could then hold a vote again next September to give the leader time to cement his credentials and use the opportunity to reinforce support for him, or elect another leader then.
Some political instability and confusion should be expected in the coming weeks, Ito said.
“We have had the same prime minister for seven years and that in itself provides stability, but before that, Japan had a new leader virtually every year,” he pointed out.
“That just shows you the weaknesses that are inherent in Japanese politics,” he said.
While the opposition parties were “very weak” right now, they could soon be calling for a general election to challenge the new prime minister. He said Fumio Kishida, who served as both foreign and defence minister under Abe, was a favourite for the top role and Shigeru Ishida, a former defence minister who is popular with voters, would be his biggest rival.
“My personal choice would be Ishida and I think that he would want to introduce a lot of very different policies to Abe,” he said.
“I think his foreign and security policies would be largely the same, but I believe he would do a better job.”
Other names that have been mentioned include Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi and Defence Minister Taro Kono, although Ito believes that none of the three men have sufficient support within the party for a sustained challenge.
This article first appeared on South China Morning Post.
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