Economists expect lower inflation of 2.9% for this year and 3.2% for 2020, according to the latest survey results of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).
Results of the second quarter or end-June Private Sector Economists’ Inflation Forecasts showed lower inflation compared to the mean inflation forecasts in the last survey (March 2019) which was 3.3% for 2019 and 3.4% for 2020. For 2021, the forecast was also lowered to 3.1% from 3.4% previously.
The private sector economists’ forecasts are higher than the Monetary Board-approved 2019 and 2020 inflation projections of 2.7% and 3%, respectively, that was announced last June 20, the day they decided to pause on its policy easing after adjusting key rates lower by 25 basis points last May 9.
BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno said last Friday that the results of the June survey showed lower inflation expectations for 2019 to 2021 as “analysts expected inflation to remain manageable and within the government’s target range (of two-four percent) over the policy horizon.”
Based on the survey, analysts continue to see manageable inflation and stable outlook with risks still broadly balanced.
The June survey, which included 27 respondents and conducted from June 7-17, also showed that upside risks to inflation include the adverse effect of weak El Niño weather conditions on domestic food supply, and the volatile global crude oil prices.
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This article first appeared on Manila Bulletin.
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