As fires continue to rip through Australia, some devastating numbers are emerging: At least 24 people killed. More than 15.6 million acres torched. Over 1,400 homes destroyed. And, according to one biodiversity expert’s count, an estimated 1 billion animals killed.
That last number is staggeringly huge, and has begun to make the rounds on social media. You might be wondering: How are so many animals dying? And how do we know the number of animals killed?
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The bushfires, exacerbated by climate change, have since September swept through vast swathes of Australia — we’re talking about an area bigger than Vermont and New Hampshire combined — affecting a mix of rural and suburban areas.
Many wild animals and some farm animals have been killed directly by the flames. We can see the evidence with our own eyes: Distressing images of burned kangaroos and koalas, and videos of dead animals on the sides of the roads, have circulated online over the past week.
An injured koala receives treatment after its rescue from a bushfire at the Port Macquarie Koala Hospital (Picture: Visual China Group)
Other animals have not been burned alive but have faced death due to the destruction of their natural environment, which they rely on for food and shelter.
Initially, the number of animals killed was put at 480 million, an estimate that came from Chris Dickman, a biodiversity expert at the University of Sydney, last week. A statement from that institution explained how he arrived at the number.
A burnt koala could not escape the wrath of the Australia bushfires. Image Credit: Peter Luker/Caters
In 2007, Dickman co-authored a report for the WWF (formerly known as the World Wildlife Fund) on how land-clearing affects Australian wildlife in the state of New South Wales (NSW). To calculate the impact, he and the other authors first mined previously published studies for estimates of mammal population density in NSW. Then they multiplied the density estimates by the areas of vegetation approved to be cleared.
Using this simple formula, Dickman was able to calculate that approximately 480 million animals had been killed since the bushfires in NSW started in September.
A kangaroo trying to move away from nearby bushfires at a residential property near the town of Nowra, NSW. (Photo: Getty Images)
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Some experts suggested that estimate was too high. Sadly, there are three reasons to believe the true loss of animal life is much greater — more like 1 billion.
First, the 480 million number applied to NSW alone, and the bushfires have since spread to the state of Victoria. Second, the number included mammals, birds, and reptiles, but did not include insects, bats, or frogs. Third, the 2007 report “deliberately employed highly conservative estimates in making their calculations,” according to the statement.
A horse tries to flea a residential property near the town of Nowra in fire-ravaged New South Wales (Picture: AFP)
That’s why Dickman now estimates the real number of animals lost in the fires is at least 1 billion.
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“The original figure ― the 480 million ― was based on mammals, birds, and reptiles for which we do have densities, and that figure now is a little bit out of date. It’s over 800 million given the extent of the fires now ― in New South Wales alone,” he told the Huffington Post.
Burnt animal corpses (koalas and kangaroos) lining the road of Batlow in New South Wales – one of the areas worst hit by the infernos over the weekend.
If we also count bats, frogs, and invertebrates (and given their environmental impact, there’s good reason to think we should), Dickman said it’s “without any doubt at all” that the number of animals lost tops 1 billion. “Over a billion would be a very conservative figure.”
Stuart Blanch, an environmental scientist at WWF Australia, also said 1 billion was a modest estimate given how far the fires have recently spread, according to HuffPost.
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This article first appeared on VOX.
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